The official increase in new cases slowed dramatically as the authorities once again changed the diagnostic criteria. The change of course sparked suspicion of more fiddling with the data, but it may also be a legitimate move now that they have more testing capacity.

However, watch what the officials do, not what they say. Two unmistakable signs the Party thinks victory really is at hand will be:

1. Xi visits Wuhan;

2. The announcement of a date for the “Two Meetings”

Meanwhile, the growing pressure to get the economy restarted is running into the reality that while the outbreak looks to be slowing there is still significant risk of new outbreaks, as Beijing is learning (see item #1 below).

Things look more optimistic today in China than they did a week ago, and not just because of the positive energy propaganda onslaught, but it is far from over.

Thanks for reading.