BA.5 is in Shanghai and fears are growing of more restrictions if not lockdowns. While policymakers have been tweaking “dynamic zero-Covid” to make it more dynamic, there are no indications, especially since Xi reiterated the correctness of the policy in Wuhan in late June, that the fundamental policy will change.

And so that may leave officials with no choice but to lock down if BA.5 cases increase, as it appears it is more transmissible and more capable of evading vaccines and immune defenses than earlier variants, which means we could be on the precipice of another set of lockdown nightmares, both for the people and for the economy. How does the PRC leadership avoid such a grim scenario?

It is Q2 GDP week, so let’s see what you think the official number will be.

Xi Jinping has not appeared in public since his visit to Hong Kong, based on official listings on the CCTV and People’s Daily web sites. This absence may spark some speculation, but I will guess it has to do with preparation …