Cautious optimism is growing that China has passed the worst of the epidemic, based at least on the official data. It is hard to know how much the positive energy is real as opposed to generated as part of the increasingly urgent push to restart the economy.

The positive energy efforts are coupled with increasingly aggressive support policies for businesses. The government needs to get cash flowing again in the economy very soon.

I am still sticking with what I wrote last week - Watch what the officials do, not what they say. Two unmistakable signs the Party thinks victory really is at hand will be:

1. Xi visits Wuhan;

2. The announcement of a date for the “Two Meetings”

The virus is spreading globally and while outbreaks that damage the economies of major PRC trading partners would be bad for China, there is propaganda value for the CCP in being able to point to poor responses in other nations as further evidence of the superiority of the PRC’s system. Yes, I know that is cynical, sadly.

Sund…