The Fourth Plenum has started, we know nothing more than the brief official statement, but there are of course lots of rumors and speculation.

Last Thursday’s newsletter noted some of the rumors without giving specifics, but clearly based on reader feedback you want to hear what some of them are. The ones getting the most circulation are about the possible promotion of Chen Min’er to the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and his designation as Xi’s successor. A variant of that rumor also includes the promotion of Hu Chunhua to the PBSC and the expansion of the body to nine members from seven.

I am very skeptical, for lots of reasons including the sources, but you just never know with CCP elite politics. I would be more dismissive but for something a senior western official with access to their government’s information on China told me recently, that Xi seemed to have been restrained, perhaps by elders, over Hong Kong and the trade talks. They could be wrong, which would be worrisome…