Apologies for the lack of a newsletter yesterday. A confluence of events led to the newsletter equivalent of a bad hair day.

The big news today is the Financial Times scoop that Beijing is looking at replacing Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam by March 2020. Such a move may calm some of the protests but is likely far from enough to keep many of the protestors off the streets, especially since according to the FT the possible replacements are establishment figures and there are no signs that Beijing is willing to consider changing the selection/election process.

While most signals continue to suggest there will be a “phase one” trade deal soon recent comments by Secretary of State Pompeo remind us that a “phase one” deal will not fundamentally change the trajectory of the US-China relationship. In a speech in Washington yesterday titled Trump Administration Diplomacy: The Untold Story, Pompeo told the audience:

We’ve reconvened “the Quad” – the security talks between Japan, Australia,…