The propaganda rollout is underway for Xi Jinping’s recent Zhejiang inspection tour. While his visit underscores that the worst of the epidemic is over and the economy is coming back to life, it is hard not to be struck by how far from normal China still is, in spite of all the pain and sacrifices since January, and what that means for the the next few months here in the US and in the rest of the world.

The State Council announced more measures to support the economy but if the global demand shock is worse than it was in 2008, and it sure looks it is, then the PRC economy will need much more support. It is hard to believe that the domestic market alone will be enough to fuel a sustained recovery at the level the CCP needs to meet this year's goals for economic and social progress, as Xi emphasized in Zhejiang.

And even if significantly more policy support is forthcoming the stability maintenance system in the PRC will likely be stressed in ways it has not in years, given the downside …