Happy New Year, happy to be back in your inboxes, though it is hard to know where to begin.

So here goes:

Liu He and his delegations are scheduled to arrive in DC January 13 to sign the phase one trade agreement.

As this newsletter has told you ad nauseam, do not expect the trade agreement to do much to arrest the broader, structural decline in the US-China relationship. I believe we are still in the phase where, as a Chinese contact likes to say, today is the best day of the US-China relationship for the next several years.

President Trump’s tweet announcing the signing date had an interesting twist: