The mooted “phase one” US-China trade deal may not become reality any time soon. December 15 is the next big tariff deadline, and President Trump now says he likes “the idea of waiting until after the [2020]election for the China deal”.

Negotiations are still ongoing, and Trump looks to be negotiating in public by warning the Chinese side that if they want a deal they have to back down from what the US side believes are additional asks the Chinese made after what was supposed to have been an agreement in principle. The Chinese side though I hear feels the US side has walked back from what was agreed to in October. But there are still twelve days for both sides to blink.

If there is no deal, or at least an extension, by December 15, we could be looking at the potential for a year without a deal, increased tariffs, and rising tensions across just about every dimension of the US-China relationship. The trade negotiations have actually been a bit of a brake on the forces pushing the relat…