Last week’s trade talks in DC may not have achieved real breakthroughs but they were also not the bust the market on Friday thought they were. I doubt much will happen between now and the National Day celebration, so once again we are left waiting for a Liu He visit in a few weeks. I have not suddenly become an optimist but as I wrote Thursday the chances for an interim trade deal may still be higher than they have been in a while, albeit one that does not solve the hard, underlying structural issues.

The focus now is on the October 1 celebrations. Beijing is on lockdown as it usually is before these types of events, though it sounds like this year it is even more intense. The newsletter may get a bit thinner over the next few days as the news flow becomes even more of a propaganda river. I plan to publish September 30 and October 1 next week but am not yet sure about 10.2 and 10.3, as the country will be on holiday and there may not be much going on.

Those who support a tougher US app…