The Beijing Olympics are over, China won 9 gold medals and successfully held the games in the middle of the pandemic and in spite of diplomatic pressure from the US and a few other countries. From the PRC’s perspective I do not see how these Olympics were anything but a massive win for China.

The Ukraine crisis looks to be much less of a “win” for the PRC, and in fact carries significant risk of the bottom falling out of its relationships with the EU and the US.

I do not believe that Xi and his team want to see Russia invade Ukraine, as they understand the risks from the expected reaction to any invasion. Over the weekend Foreign Minister Wang Yi weighed in at the Munich Security Conference and said that the “parties concerned should come back to the Minsk II agreement of 2015”.

Unfortunately for Wang and the PRC, Putin, who at least waited until the Olympics were over, looks to have already ruled that out today when he announced he would “recognize Russia-backed separatists in the so-…