This time it looks there may actually be a US-China trade deal. It is however not yet signed and there are risks things could go sideways during the period needed for legal language and translation agreement, but the statements from both sides should give us more confidence that a meeting to sign the documents should happen within the next several weeks.

How good is the deal? It is hard to tell from the limited public details, but my sense is that the Chinese did concede more than the US because Xi wants to try to put a floor, however temporary and narrow it may be, under the rapidly descending trajectory of US-China relations.

The deal will not fix China’s broader economic challenges, but as discussed in the newsletter last Thursday any stabilization in the US-China economic relationship should give at least a bit of upside to China’s base case for its economy in 2020.

Other things on my radar:

• Xi will be in Macau Wednesday through Friday for the 20th anniversary of the handover;

• Arsenal…