PRC officials sound very worried about the direction of the US-Japan relationship. President Biden and Prime Minister Suga meet in Washington DC next week, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi has effectively warned Japan to behave. While the Senkakus/Diaoyu Islands dispute is always in issue, Japanese officials have sounded particularly worried about Taiwan.

Japan has a unique experience with hyper-nationalist rising powers and so I doubt the government will be swayed by Wang’s comments. The opposite is more likely, especially if PRC officials decide to send more substantive warnings, perhaps in the form of problems for one or more Japanese companies or Japanese citizens in China.

We are less than three months away from the July 1st 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP. The pressure on officials to avoid any mistakes that could cause stability ripples is intense. My (hopeful?) base case for the next three months is that while the nationalist rhetoric and condemnations of and possible …