I wanted to share with the Sinocism community an interesting effort by CSET Foretell to aggregate individual forecasts (which are anonymous) to generate a real-time probability assigned by "the market" to PRC-related events. The current questions are:

1. Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

2. Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

3. Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

4. Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

The creators asked me to share with the Sinocism community, as they know you all are in the aggregate probably the best China-watching community out there, and since these are questions I think we are all inte…